Freight Rates Are Finally Stabilizing — But Will They Climb Again?

After a rough stretch in 2023 and early 2024, freight rates are finally showing signs of leveling out in early 2025. For many long-haul carriers and owner-operators, that’s a welcome shift after months of hauling loads at or near break-even just to stay on the road.

The drop in spot market rates over the past two years hit small carriers especially hard. At the height of the pandemic, trucking demand surged, and spot rates skyrocketed. But once supply chains settled and consumer spending slowed, demand dropped—and with it, rates. The result was a massive shakeout: thousands of small fleets shut down, and the market was left with too many trucks chasing too few loads.

Today, the picture is starting to improve. National average spot rates for dry vans, reefers, and flatbeds have stopped falling, and in some regions, they’ve even begun to rise. Load volumes are up compared to last year, and fewer trucks on the road means less competition per load. At the same time, contract rates—which tend to lag behind spot rates—are beginning to reset, and analysts expect a gradual upward trend throughout 2025.

Of course, it’s not evenly distributed. Rates vary significantly by region and equipment type. For example, flatbed haulers in the Midwest are seeing stronger pricing thanks to manufacturing and construction activity, while dry van rates in the Northeast remain more subdued. Fuel costs, which spiked in recent years, have moderated somewhat, giving carriers a bit of breathing room on expenses.

While the market isn’t back to the high-water marks of 2021, stability is a welcome change—and many in the industry are cautiously optimistic that we’re entering a more sustainable phase. If freight demand continues to grow and capacity stays tight, rates could climb further, giving both carriers and owner-operators a shot at stronger margins in the months ahead.